The Psychology of Persuasion: How Influence Shapes Investigations
A deep dive into the minds behind the motives and how Futurum Risk uses influence to uncover the truth.
Every Action Has a Motivation
In the world of intelligence, security, and high-stakes investigations, the difference between truth and deception isn’t always about what is being said. It’s about why it’s being said.
At Futurum, we don’t just observe. We interpret. We look deeper, behind the curtain of human behaviour, and ask: what motivates someone to hide, to lie, to slip up, to talk?
This isn’t just about going undercover in shady spaces or assuming a false identity at a cocktail event (though, yes, sometimes it is). More often than not, it’s about conducting what we call a targeted subject investigation, a strategic and discreet operation focused on understanding a person of interest. Whether we’re tracing asset trails, probing insurance fraud, or unravelling matrimonial deceit, the heart of our work often lies in understanding the individual behind the issue.
And that’s where influence comes in.
With over 25 years in risk, intelligence, and security, including 12 years as an accredited detective in UK law enforcement, James Ellender, Managing Director of Futurum, brings a deeply analytical and strategic lens to the human elements of investigation. Holding a Master’s in Behavioural Science and an MSc in Risk, Crisis, and Disaster Management, James has advised multinational corporations and trained government intelligence teams across the globe. His unique combination of field experience and academic insight is foundational to Futurum investigative approach. He also sits as a Strategic Board Advisor to the International Fraud Group.
“Understanding influence is less about manipulation and more about decoding pressure,” says Ellender. “In high-stakes environments, it’s never just about the facts, it’s about the forces driving people toward decisions they wouldn’t normally make. That’s where the real truth lies.”
Influence: The Most Underrated Tool in an Investigator’s Arsenal
You might imagine influence as some abstract, manipulative force. But in reality, it’s practical psychology. Centuries old, but still razor-sharp today.
The art of influence isn’t about control. It’s about comprehension. The best investigators aren’t the loudest in the room, they’re the most observant. They see the subtle tells, the quiet hesitations, the shifting loyalties.
Why is someone acting this way? What pressure points exist? What would push this person to act differently or to tell the truth?
To answer these questions, professionals in intelligence and counterintelligence often use a model called MICE. It’s one of our most powerful internal tools when we assess how best to approach a target during a sensitive investigation.
But before we unpack that, let’s step back. Why do people really cooperate?
Human Motivation: A Map of Vulnerabilities
Everyone has a tipping point. Some crack under pressure, others open up when they feel heard. Some are driven by loyalty; others, by self-interest.Understanding human motivation isn’t just about manipulation. It’s about empathy, psychology, and reading the undercurrents beneath the surface.
In high-level investigations, especially when we’re dealing with white-collar crime, insider threats, or person tracing, it’s not enough to just collect data. We need to know what makes our subject tick. And often, that means navigating shades of human vulnerability.
This is where the MICE model becomes particularly useful.
The MICE Framework: Money, Ideology, Compromise, Ego
Originally developed by intelligence agencies to identify how spies were recruited, MICE has since evolved into a tool used in both governmental and private intelligence to understand personal motivators. At its core, it identifies four key influences that can lead people to act against their own interests, or in service of someone else’s.
Let’s break it down:
1. Money
The most straightforward of all motivators. Financial pressure or greed can push people to share secrets, change loyalties, or break laws. This is often the first indicator we assess in cases of internal fraud, whistleblowing, or corporate leaks.
People are more likely to rationalise unethical behaviour when they’re under financial strain. They’ll tell themselves, “It’s just this once,” or, “I deserve this.” In an investigation, we look at spending habits, lifestyle choices, and sudden changes in income as potential tells.
2. Ideology
This one’s nuanced. Ideology doesn’t always mean politics or religion. It could be a belief in fairness, a personal vendetta, or a sense of justice gone rogue. Someone might leak information because they believe their employer is unethical. Or because they’re loyal to a different cause.
Understanding someone’s ideological landscape can be critical in whistleblower cases, internal betrayal, or even missing persons investigations where the subject has “disappeared” for a cause.
3. Compromise (or Coercion)
This is the classic blackmail route. Think of hidden affairs, addiction, tax evasion, secrets someone doesn’t want exposed. We take compromise very seriously. If someone has something to hide, we need to assess whether they’re being influenced or manipulated by others, or whether they could be.
4. Ego
The most unpredictable of all motivators. Ego is about status, recognition, vanity, power. A person with a bruised ego might act out for revenge. Someone overlooked for promotion might share secrets just to feel powerful.
This often plays out in internal politics or employee grievances that spiral into damaging behaviour. Understanding ego means paying attention to tone, posture, resentment, and ambition.
Bringing It to Life: A Case from the Files of Futurum Risk
Case Study : The Disappearing Portfolio
A high-net-worth client approached us in the midst of a contentious divorce. She suspected her husband, a well-connected entrepreneur with overseas ties, was hiding significant assets ahead of the settlement. On paper, everything looked clean. He seemed calm, compliant, even helpful. But something didn’t sit right.
This wasn’t about spreadsheets. It was about strategy. We launched a targeted subject investigation, not just to chase money, but to understand the man behind the façade.
Twenty years of marriage. Frequent solo trips. A sudden switch in legal strategy. And a quiet confidence that suggested he believed he’d already won. He was precise, guarded, and egotistical, a classic profile.
MICE in action:
- Money: Motivated him, but not out of desperation. He was protecting assets, not chasing them.
- Ideology: No deep convictions or moral defences.
- Compromise: Surface-level clean, but we picked up burner numbers and encrypted messages. Deeper analysis revealed a secret second property, registered under a known associate.
- Ego: This was his tell. He was a man who liked to be the smartest in the room.
We started to unravel the threads using network mapping, quiet surveillance, and financial triangulation. Eventually, a pattern emerged: payments to obscure consulting firms in low-regulation jurisdictions.
Rather than confront, we applied pressure indirectly. Through a controlled conversation with a third party posing as a corporate advisor, we let him believe someone unrelated was looking into his business. In trying to divert attention, he inadvertently exposed the shell structure he’d worked so hard to build.
Within three weeks, we traced the hidden assets, provided a full report for legal proceedings, and gave our client what she came for — clarity and leverage.
Why This Matters in the Bigger Picture
Whether we’re investigating a romance scam, tracing offshore assets, or vetting executive hires, influence is everything. Not all investigations require deep cover or dramatic stings. Sometimes, all it takes is asking the right question, in the right tone, at the right time.
At Futurum, we use psychology, empathy, and strategy to illuminate what’s hidden. The MICE framework doesn’t just help us understand others — it keeps our approach sharp, ethical, and human.
We’re not just looking for the what. We’re always searching for the why.
